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Elections & Polling terms
Polls, averages, forecasts and election-night models.
Exit poll A survey of voters conducted immediately after they leave the polling place, used to estimate results and behavior. Get-out-the-vote (GOTV) analytics Analytics applied to voter mobilization programs, measuring and optimizing contact efforts that increase turnout. Likely voter model A statistical filter pollsters apply to a survey sample to estimate results among the people who will actually vote. Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) A method for estimating opinion in small geographic or demographic groups from a national survey by modeling and reweighting. Poll aggregation Combining multiple individual polls, weighted by quality and recency, into a single averaged estimate of opinion. Turnout modeling Predicting the probability that an individual registered voter will cast a ballot in a given election. Voter file A state-maintained list of registered voters, appended with modeled data, used as the base file for campaign analytics.