Get-out-the-vote (GOTV) analytics

Get-out-the-vote (GOTV) analytics applies data and measurement to voter mobilization programs, canvassing, phone calls, text messages, mail, and digital ads aimed at getting supporters to actually vote. It sits downstream of turnout modeling, which identifies who to prioritize, and focuses on measuring whether specific contact methods and messages actually move turnout among the people contacted.

The strongest evidence in this field comes from randomized field experiments: campaigns and researchers use randomized controlled trial designs, contacting a randomly chosen treatment group and comparing their turnout to a similar, uncontacted control group, to isolate the causal effect of a given tactic from the underlying propensity captured in the turnout model itself. This differs from simply watching turnout rise after a GOTV program ran, which cannot separate the program's effect from other factors moving turnout at the same time, such as a competitive race driving turnout regardless of outreach.

GOTV analytics informs which contact channels and messages campaigns and civic organizations invest in, and is closely tied to voter file data and persuasion modeling scores when deciding who to contact and with what message. A common pitfall is generalizing results from one tactic, election, or population to a very different context — a contact method's measured effect on turnout in one study does not reliably transfer to a different race, region, or electorate.