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Politics, Society & Demographics terms
The measured society: polls, campaigns, opinion, population, labor, housing and development data.
Exit poll A survey of voters conducted immediately after they leave the polling place, used to estimate results and behavior. Get-out-the-vote (GOTV) analytics Analytics applied to voter mobilization programs, measuring and optimizing contact efforts that increase turnout. Likely voter model A statistical filter pollsters apply to a survey sample to estimate results among the people who will actually vote. Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) A method for estimating opinion in small geographic or demographic groups from a national survey by modeling and reweighting. Poll aggregation Combining multiple individual polls, weighted by quality and recency, into a single averaged estimate of opinion. Turnout modeling Predicting the probability that an individual registered voter will cast a ballot in a given election. Voter file A state-maintained list of registered voters, appended with modeled data, used as the base file for campaign analytics. Microtargeting Using granular voter or consumer data to reach narrowly defined audience segments with tailored messages. Participatory budgeting (PB) A process where community members directly decide how to spend a defined portion of a public budget. Persuasion modeling Predicting which voters are movable on a candidate or issue, as distinct from how likely they are to vote. Likert scale An ordinal rating scale, typically five or seven points, running between two opposite attitudes or opinions. Nonresponse bias Distortion in survey results that occurs when people who decline to participate differ systematically from those who respond. Questionnaire design Writing and structuring survey questions and response options to minimize bias and measure reliably. Response rate The share of people selected for a survey who actually complete it, a key indicator of potential nonresponse bias. Sampling frame The list or source, such as a voter file or address database, from which a survey's respondents are actually drawn. Survey mode effects Systematic differences in how people answer identical questions depending on the survey's mode of delivery. Survey weighting Adjusting survey responses so the sample's demographic makeup matches the target population's known composition. American Community Survey (ACS) An ongoing U.S. Census Bureau survey providing detailed annual demographic, social, and economic data. Census tract A small, relatively stable geographic area defined by a national statistical agency for reporting population data. Dependency ratio The ratio of dependents, children and older adults, to the working-age population, per 100 people. Fertility rate (total fertility rate, TFR) The average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime at current age-specific birth rates. Life expectancy The average number of years a person could expect to live given current age-specific mortality rates. Migration flows Measured movement of people into and out of a geographic area, used to calculate net migration. Population pyramid A chart showing a population's age and sex distribution, whose shape reveals growth, aging, or decline. Small area estimation (SAE) Statistical techniques for producing reliable estimates for areas or subgroups too small to sample directly. Cost of living index (COLI) An index comparing the relative cost of a fixed basket of goods and services across different places. Gini coefficient A single number, from 0 to 1, measuring income or wealth inequality within a population. Labor force participation rate (LFPR) The share of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work. Median household income The income level at which half of households earn more and half earn less, in a given year and place. Unemployment rate The share of the labor force that is jobless and actively looking for work, excluding people not seeking employment. Displacement risk A modeled estimate of how likely a neighborhood or household is to experience housing-driven displacement. House price index (HPI) An index tracking how home prices change over time using repeat sales of the same properties. Housing affordability index An index measuring whether a typical household can afford a typical home in a given housing market. Rent burden The share of a renter household's income spent on rent, commonly flagged as burdened above 30 percent. Vacancy rate The share of housing units that are unoccupied and available, a key gauge of how tight a rental market is. Human Development Index (HDI) A composite index combining life expectancy, education, and income to rank and compare countries' overall development. Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) The ongoing tracking of a program's activities plus periodic assessment of whether it achieved its intended outcomes. Poverty headcount ratio The share of a population living below a defined poverty line, most often expressed as a percentage. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators The official metrics the United Nations uses to track country-level progress toward the 17 Sustainable Development Goals.