Average draft position (ADP)

Average draft position aggregates the pick number at which a player is selected across a large sample of fantasy sports drafts on a given platform, then averages it into a single consensus figure. It reflects what drafters actually do, not a model's estimate of what a player will produce.

That distinction matters because ADP can diverge from a player's fantasy projection: projections are forward-looking forecasts built from usage and matchup data, while ADP is a backward-looking summary of recent draft behavior, which can lag breaking news such as an injury or a depth-chart change until enough drafts have occurred to reflect it. Drafters watch for players going consistently later than their projection suggests, described as "beating ADP," as a potential source of value, while picking well above ADP is generally treated as a reach.

ADP is central to draft strategy and to tools like draft analytics and value over replacement player calculations that need a baseline of where a player is expected to be available. The main pitfall is comparing ADP figures across platforms, formats, or scoring systems without noting the source, since draft pool composition, league size, and scoring rules all shift consensus rankings meaningfully.