MVRV ratio (market value to realized value)

The MVRV ratio compares a cryptocurrency's market value, current price multiplied by circulating supply, to its realized value, which values each coin at the price it was last moved on-chain rather than at today's price. The ratio is calculated as MVRV = market value / realized value.

A high MVRV ratio means the current market price is well above the average price at which coin holders last transacted, suggesting the market as a whole is sitting on large unrealized profits, which historically has coincided with market tops as holders are more tempted to sell. A low ratio, close to or below 1, means the aggregate holder base is near or under water on their cost basis, which has historically coincided with market bottoms. This differs from a simple price chart in that it incorporates the cost basis of coins still in circulation, tracked through on-chain analytics, rather than price alone.

Analysts use MVRV, and derived versions such as the MVRV Z-score, as a cycle-timing and sentiment indicator for major cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, often alongside wallet clustering to refine which coins are counted as genuinely in circulation. A key pitfall is applying MVRV mechanically as a trading signal: it is a historical pattern observed over a small number of market cycles, not a proven law, and lost coins or long-dormant wallets can distort the realized-value calculation.