Expected assists (xA)

Expected assists values a soccer pass by the probability that a shot resulting from it will be a goal, using a model trained on the outcomes of similar past passes, in the same way expected goals values a shot by its scoring probability. A pass into the penalty area that sets up a close-range shot earns a high xA even if the resulting shot is missed; a low-danger square pass earns very little.

xA models use features such as the pass's origin and destination on the pitch, the type of pass, through ball, cross or cutback, and the shot quality of the chance it created, effectively borrowing the receiving shot's expected-goals value and crediting it to the passer. This differs from counting actual assists, a results-based stat that depends entirely on whether the teammate finished the chance.

Analysts use xA to evaluate creative output independent of finishing luck, useful for spotting playmakers whose teammates are under- or over-performing their chances, and it pairs with progressive passes to separate players who advance the ball from players who create direct scoring threats. The main pitfall is that xA depends on a shot actually being taken; a brilliant pass that a teammate fails to get a shot away from registers no xA at all, understating some genuine chance creation.